The Moderately Budgeted Film

The $5-35M Theatrical Market is Transforming

Today, I want to look at moderately budgeted films. The $5-35 million theatrical film - long a path to building careers and launching new talent and the predominant subject of industry breakfasts and screenwriter groups - is undergoing a dramatic transformation. The number of these films released to theaters has nearly halved since 2019 and horror now accounts for over half of the box office market for this category. There is a shift here that is reshaping film careers and the film business.

Theatrical releases in this budget range arguably remain crucial for career advancement. While streaming platforms offer more opportunities to get films made, they tend not to create stars or establish the kind of prestige that transforms careers. We need to be able to make films like Mystic Pizza, Dead Calm, Thelma & Louise, Risky Business or A Bigger Splash, not only to enjoy them and allow culture to move forward, but also so that we can discover Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman, Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise and Luca Guadagnino, respectively.

2024 was a tough year in film because of residual effects of COVID and the strikes. So we can agree to put an asterisk on it, but 2024 data is the data we have that describes our world now – so it is a mistake to ignore it.

Fewer of the films that concern us today are getting made – or at least fewer of the films in this category are being released to theaters. If you look at American films with budgets between $5 million and $35 million (from Anora to La La Land) that grossed at least $5 million from 2014 to 2024, 460 such films were released. So that’s 42 movies per year. In 2019, the number was 54. In 2023, the number was 35, down 17% from the overall average. In 2024, the number is 31. It will hit 32 when The Brutalist (presumably) passes the $5M mark.

So the aggregate number of theatrical films in the category is down. From a genre point of view, it is also more concentrated. Horror in 2019 captured 39% of the US box office in this category. In 2023 it was 44%. In 2024, it was 53%. So if future years are like 2024, then a non-horror film in this category looking to be produced and released theatrically is looking to be one of ~15 films (vs 2019’s 32). 32 feels like a much bigger opportunity to me than 15 – about twice as big, in fact!

To be fair, we should note that It Ends With Us grossed $149M. Sound of Freedom grossed $184M. Anyone But You grossed $88M. Whatever may be true of the general market, there are clearly substantial audiences for the right film.

Key Observations

The Disappearance of Theatrical Comedy

There are no true comedies on the 2024 list. Best Christmas Pageant is a family film. 2023 has Anyone But You, Cocaine Bear and 80 For Brady in the top 12. In 2019, three of the top 10 are comedies. Now, I didn’t reproduce the list in this document but if we go back to 2015, 6 of the top 10 films in this budget category, ranked by box office, is a comedy – Pitch Perfect 2, Sisters, Mall Cop 2, The Big Short… The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which grossed $33M in the US ($85 globally) on a $10M budget, doesn’t make the top 10.

You can believe one of three things.

1. People used to like to laugh but now they don’t.

2. People like to laugh, but comedies aren’t theatrical enough to attract customers to theaters (people laugh at home).

3. A large-scale mistake is being made.

It is possible, of course, to believe both (2) and (3) – it is possible that theatrical demand is down because some of demand has shifted to home viewing, but also that the market is over-reacting and we have too few theatrical comedies. I think a large-scale mistake is being made even if some comedies that worked theatrically in 2015 might not make it today.

To me this feels like an opportunity for a new studio or network. But I can understand producers and filmmakers who do not want to fight the market until such a venue exists.

Prestige Films: Finding the Budget Sweet Spot

Anora looks topped out at $15M. It’s down to 100 theaters so I could be wrong but I presume that is it. The Substance looks topped out at $16M (although it did get $61M international, which is amazing). Hard to say what The Brutalist will make as it is just getting going. Conclave has made $31M. Poor Things did $35M last year. Everything Everywhere did $77M domestic in 2022.

As an investor, I would be happier if Anora was looking at ~$28M and The Substance was pushing $40M.

As I have said before, I think people are looking for a bit of fun right now and it is helpful to have a genre element to get people to the theaters.

I would say it’s a challenging time for prestige. The toughest category right now might be the Poor Things (2023), Big Short (2015), La La Land (2016), Little Women (2019) film with top talent and a star that costs around $35M to $40M. Those are great films, all of which worked, but with Everything Everywhere at a budget of $14M and Jojo Rabbit at $14M, people might be more enthusiastic at that lower budget level in 2025.

The Power of Source Material

Note that almost all of the original films on these lists are based on some source material, either a book or a true story. The exceptions tend to be prestige films like The Brutalist. If you’re a writer and you’re going for one of the 15 non-horror movie slots on the list, do what moves you but … consider that the number of true originals on these lists is just a couple per year. So maybe find an underappreciated book you love?

Horror Continues Strong

I have said before that horror was going to be crowded and there are some very talented people in the space, like Jason Blum. I would be hesitant to invest in, say, a new studio looking to pump out horror movies. The market is well-supplied. However, from the point of view of a writer or director, I would be interested in the space. I haven't seen it but Terrifier 3 had a budget of $2M. Horror movies are efficient and their visceral, cinematic quality brings people to theaters. They aren’t going anywhere.

The $5-35M theatrical film faces a pivotal moment. While horror thrives and adaptations dominate, the disappearance of theatrical comedies and the pressure on prestige budgets suggest a market that may be overcorrecting. For filmmakers and investors, this creates both challenges and opportunities. The success of films like Anyone But You and Everything Everywhere All At Once proves audiences will still show up for the right film at the right budget. But with fewer slots available, especially for non-horror films, the path to theatrical release has narrowed considerably.

The question for 2025 is whether this represents a permanent shift in the theatrical landscape or a temporary overcorrection that enterprising producers and distributors might exploit.

What Would I Do?

It depends on who you are.

As a new writer, I would write what you are most enthusiastic about, even if it might become a sample. However, if horror is your jam, I would definitely favor that.

As an established writer, I would write something that I love and that is great. The best example of this is Dave Hemingson, who was a great TV writer with overall deals, who then wrote The Holdovers, which I believe will substantially elevate his career.

As a new studio, I would do what is not being done and do cinematic, big comedies where Groundhog Day or Ghostbusters might be models.

As a director I would either do an elevated genre film or do something very indie and very funny if you agree with me that comedy will come back. Doing something like Hundreds of Beavers is not in itself perhaps going to make you rich but if you do get established as a director of distinctive films that people care about, well, that’s a good outcome.

Notes:

• Data source: IMDb Pro

• My daughter asked me for a list of important films one should have seen and I sent her this.

Roy Price was an executive at Amazon.com for 13 years, where he founded Amazon Video and Studios. He developed 16 patented technologies. His shows have won 14 Best Series Emmys and Globes. He was formerly at McKinsey & Co. and The Walt Disney Co. He graduated from Harvard College in 1989.